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assumptions. it means to be competitive in this race mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points among the white working class and go up to 36 points. it doesn't change among minorities despite shifts eligible voters are seeing. if this gets realized minority vote share goes up a couple points from 26% in 2008 to 28% in 2012 and again the minority support stays the same it means mitt romney would have to get a 40 point margin of white working-class voters to win the election and popular vote. let's take a look at where we are based on a recent poll that came out and set the gold standard at the pew research center fold off and they do it right and have a 3,000 persons sampled. it is reliable and they give you a lot of interesting demographic breaks. this shows among likely voters that obama is leading by eight points. if you look at averages in the national polls is a bit high relative to the average which is 4 points. if you look at polls that do it right and call cellphones and not just robot called their up by five points. this is the distance of the averages and
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